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The most common cause of recessions, a surge in oil prices, is again afflicting the global economy. °æ±â ħüÀÇ °¡Àå ÀϹÝÀûÀÎ ¿øÀÎÀÎ À¯°¡ »ó½ÂÀº ¼¼°è °æÁ¦¸¦ ¶Ç ´Ù½Ã ¾î·Á¿ò¿¡ ºü¶ß¸®°í ÀÖ´Ù.
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Just as they have before every American downturn over the last 40 years, energy costs have risen significantly in the last year, capped by a sharp spike since December. With more money being spent on gasoline and heating fuel, economic growth has slowed in both the United States and Europe, and the uneven recovery that began in late 2001 is facing perhaps its biggest threat yet. ¸ðµç ¹Ì±¹ÀÎÀÌ Áö³ 40³â°£ ÇáÇâ °î¼±À» ±×¸± ¶§¿Í ¶È °°ÀÌ Áö³ ÇØ ¿¡³ÊÁö °¡°ÝÀº ¾öû³ª°Ô »ó½ÂÇߴµ¥ Áö³ 12¿ù ÀÌÈÄ ±Þ°ÝÇÑ »ó½ÂÀ¸·Î ´õ¿í ºÐ¸íÇØÁ³´Ù. ÀÚµ¿Â÷ ¿¬·á¿Í ³¹æÀ¯¿¡ º¸´Ù ¸¹Àº ºñ¿ëÀÌ ÁöÃâµÇ´Â °Í°ú ÇÔ²² ¹Ì±¹°ú À¯·´¿¡¼ÀÇ °æÁ¦ ¼ºÀåÀº µÐȵÆÀ¸¸ç 2001³â ÇϹݱ⿡ ½ÃÀÛµÈ ¼øÅºÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀº °æ±â ȸº¹Àº ¾Æ¸¶ °¡Àå ½É°¢ÇÑ À§Çù¿¡ Á÷¸éÇÏ°Ô µÈ °Í °°´Ù.
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Most forecasters expect the United States economy to avoid a new recession this year, saying that only an unexpectedly protracted war in Iraq would keep oil at its current price or higher. But any war is an unknown, and the price increases for both oil and natural gas have already caused consumers to cut back on other spending. The increases have also created a new problem for businesses trying to emerge from the hangover of the late-1990's boom. ´ëºÎºÐ °æ±â ¿¹Ãø Àü¹®°¡µéÀº À̶óÅ©¿¡¼ ¿¹»ó¿Ü·Î Áö¿¬µÇ°í ÀÖ´Â ÀüÀïÀº ¿øÀ¯°¡¸¦ ÇöÀçÀÇ °¡°ÝÀ̳ª ȤÀº ´õ ³ô°Ô ¸¸µé °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»ÇÏ¸é¼ ¹Ì±¹ °æÁ¦°¡ ¿ÃÇØ »õ·Î¿î ħü´Â ÇÇÇÏ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¿¹»óÇϰí ÀÖ´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¾î¶°ÇÑ ÀüÀïµµ ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÑ °ÍÀÌ¸ç ¿øÀ¯°¡¿Í õ¿¬ °¡½ºÀÇ °¡°Ý »ó½ÂÀº ÀÌ¹Ì ¼ÒºñÀÚµéÀÌ ´Ù¸¥ ÁöÃâÀ» ÁÙÀ̵µ·Ï ¸¸µé¾ú´Ù. ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ °¡°Ý »ó½ÂÀº 90³â´ë ¸» °æÁ¦ ºÎÈï±âÀÇ ÈÄÀ¯ÁõÀ¸·ÎºÎÅÍ Å»ÇÇÇÏ·Á°í ÇÏ´Â °æÁ¦¿¡ ´ëÇØ »õ·Î¿î ¹®Á¦Á¡À» ¾È°Ü ÁÖ¾ú´Ù.
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"The economy is extremely fragile," said Mark M. Zandi, the chief economist at Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa. "We've got some real problems if this drags on for any length of time." "°æÁ¦´Â ±Øµµ·Î ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÇÏ´Ù"¶ó°í Ææ½Çº£´Ï¾Æ ¿þ½ºÆ® ü½ºÅÍ¿¡ ÀÖ´Â Á¶»ç ±â°üÀÎ ¾îÄÚ³ë¹Ì´åÄÄÀÇ ¸¶Å© ¿¥ Á¨µð ¼±ÀÓ °æÁ¦ ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ¹àÈ÷¸é¼ "¸¸ÀÏ À̰ÍÀÌ Á» ´õ ¿À·£ ±â°£ °è¼ÓµÈ´Ù¸é ¿ì¸®´Â ¾î´À Á¤µµÀÇ Çö½ÇÀûÀÎ ¹®Á¦Á¡À» ¾È°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù."¶ó°í ¹àÇû´Ù.
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Energy costs began rising more than a year ago, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production in response to the weak global economy. The potential war in the Persian Gulf, political chaos in Venezuela and a cold winter in the United States caused the price of a barrel of oil to soar to almost $40 on Thursday, the highest since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, before it retreated to $36.60 on Friday in New York. That is up about 69 percent from a year ago. ¿øÀ¯ °¡°ÝÀº 1³â ³Ñ¾î¼ºÎÅÍ »ó½ÂÇϱ⠽ÃÀÛÇߴµ¥ À̶§ OPEC ±¹°¡µéÀº ħü¸¦ º¸À̰í ÀÖ´Â ¼¼°è °æÁ¦¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹ÝÀÀÀ¸·Î »ý»ê·®À» ÁÙ¿´´Ù. Æä¸£½Ã¾Æ ¸¸¿¡¼ÀÇ ÀüÀï °¡´É¼º°ú º£³×ÁÖ¿¤¶óÀÇ ºÒ¾ÈÇÑ Á¤Á¤ ¹× ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ Ãß¿î °Ü¿ïÀº Áö³ ¸ñ¿äÀÏ º£·² ´ç ¿øÀ¯°¡¸¦ 40´Þ·¯ ¼±±îÁö Ä¡¼Ú°Ô Çߴµ¥ ÀÌ´Â ±Ý¿äÀÏ ´º¿å¿¡¼ 36.6´Þ·¯·Î ¹Ð·Á³ª±â Àü±îÁö 1990³â À̶óÅ©°¡ Äí¿þÀÌÆ®¸¦ ħ°øÇÑ ÀÌÈÄ °¡Àå ³ôÀº °¡°ÝÀ̾ú´Ù.
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