UCLA study says U.S. economy 'staggering forward' UCLA ¿¬±¸ °á°ú, ¹Ì±¹ °æÁ¦ '¾ÕÀ¸·Î ºÎÁø'
With no obvious driver to power an economic recovery, economists with the UCLA Anderson Forecast predict that the national economy is looking at a "very sluggish period ahead," with considerable risk of another recessionary dip.
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In his report titled "This is Our First Business Cycle," Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, and economics professor at The Anderson School at UCLA, notes that past recoveries have been fueled by consumer spending on goods and real estate -- essentially "consumer cycles" driving the economy. But since these key sectors have remained steady throughout the recent recession and mild turnaround, the current climate will grow hotter only if powered by an increase in business investment, he says.
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Mr. Leamer has his doubts about increased business investments in the near future. "Business investment in pursuit of technological innovations has long waves that last a decade or more -- a peak in 1980 and another in 2000. It is highly unlikely that there will be a sharp recovery of business investment in the next year or two," he notes.
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